{"id":1850,"date":"2010-11-24T16:11:36","date_gmt":"2010-11-24T21:11:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/qballers.com\/blog\/?p=1850"},"modified":"2010-11-24T16:15:56","modified_gmt":"2010-11-24T21:15:56","slug":"teds-lucky-ratios-soq-off-the-charts-lucky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.qballers.com\/blog\/2010\/11\/24\/teds-lucky-ratios-soq-off-the-charts-lucky\/","title":{"rendered":"Ted’s Lucky Ratios: SOQ Off The Charts Lucky"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ted finally released his\u00c2\u00a0famous Annual Lucky Ratio<\/a> rankings this afternoon and although he left open the possibility of further tinkering with the analysis and commentary, there is enough juice here to release the findings.\u00c2\u00a0 Sorry Scott.<\/p>\n

Objective:
\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/h3>\n

To precisely quantify the effect random scheduling has on the won\/loss record for each team.
\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/p>\n

Assumptions:<\/h3>\n

-\u00c2\u00a0 In the QFL 13 game schedule, 6 games (46%) are played vs. division opponents and 7 (54%) are played vs. non division opponents, thus in any given week a team will play either a div or nondiv opponent based on these weightings.\u00c2\u00a0
\n-\u00c2\u00a0 The distribution of which weeks that are division vs. non-div is totally random, but that 46% will be division and 54% non-division.
\n-\u00c2\u00a0 The opponent is random within the framework of either division or non-division
\n-\u00c2\u00a0 Your score for a given week defines you.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 Injuries, bad bounces, guys left on the bench, while they may indeed be bad luck, are not part of this equation.\u00c2\u00a0
\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/p>\n

Method:<\/h3>\n

\u00c2\u00a0
\n-\u00c2\u00a0 For a given week, determine the number and percentage of teams a team has beaten a) within its division (max of 3 ) and b) outside its division (max of 8 )
\n\u00c2\u00a0
\n-\u00c2\u00a0 Apply the probabilities of a week being either a division or non div week, and determine an overall chance of winning given a team’s score.\u00c2\u00a0
\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/p>\n

Example:<\/h3>\n

\u00c2\u00a0
\n-\u00c2\u00a0 A team is the high scorer of the week.\u00c2\u00a0 It thus beats 100% (3) of teams in its division and 100% (8) of teams non division.\u00c2\u00a0 It had a 100% chance of winning.\u00c2\u00a0
\n\u00c2\u00a0
\n-\u00c2\u00a0 A team scores 65 points.\u00c2\u00a0 65 pts would have beaten 2 of 3 teams in its division (66%) but just 3 of 8 teams outside its division (37.5%).\u00c2\u00a0 Its total chances of winning that week are thus 46% x 66% + 54% x 37.5% = 51%.\u00c2\u00a0
\n\u00c2\u00a0
\n-\u00c2\u00a0 A team scores 80 pts but the rest of the division scores higher.\u00c2\u00a0 All 4 teams in that division outscore the other 8 teams.\u00c2\u00a0 Said team has a 0% chance of beating a division team (if it were a division week) but a 100% chance of beating a non-division team.\u00c2\u00a0 The total chance of winning is 54% (46% x 0% + 54% x 100%) .
\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/p>\n

General Statistical Observations of the QFL:<\/h3>\n

\u00c2\u00a0
\nI looked at scoring from the 2008 (9 wks of data), 2009 and 2010 seasons for QFL1, a total of 396 observations .\u00c2\u00a0
\n\u00c2\u00a0
\n\u00c2\u00a0
\n-\u00c2\u00a0 Scoring is almost exactly normally distributed around a mean of 69.90 , a median of 69.33 and a standard deviation of 17.58, with a very slight positive skew of 0.19.\u00c2\u00a0 Breakouts of those individual seasons produced immaterial deviations within a point or so.\u00c2\u00a0
\n-\u00c2\u00a0 This distribution allows us to establish precise significance to tail events when they occur.\u00c2\u00a0
\n\u00c2\u00a0
\n\u00c2\u00a0
\n\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0Observations<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0396<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nMean<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 69.90 <\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nMedian<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 69.93 <\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nSt Dev<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 17.58 <\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nSkew<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 0.19 <\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Confidence<\/span><\/td>\nStDev<\/span><\/td>\nMax<\/span><\/td>\nMin<\/span><\/td>\nPredicted Outliers<\/span><\/td>\nActual Outliers<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
68%<\/span><\/td>\n1<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 87.49 <\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 52.32 <\/span><\/td>\n127 <\/span><\/td>\n119<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
90%<\/span><\/td>\n1.65<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 98.92 <\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 40.89 <\/span><\/td>\n40 <\/span><\/td>\n43<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
95%<\/span><\/td>\n1.96<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 104.37 <\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 35.44 <\/span><\/td>\n20 <\/span><\/td>\n26<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
99%<\/span><\/td>\n2.58<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 115.27 <\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 24.53 <\/span><\/td>\n4 <\/span><\/td>\n6<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
\u00c2\u00a0<\/div>\n
\u00c2\u00a0<\/div>\n
\u00c2\u00a0<\/div>\n
\u00c2\u00a0<\/div>\n
My QFL Rankings (more commentary to come) :<\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n
\u00c2\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n
\u00c2\u00a0<\/strong><\/span>\u00c2\u00a0<\/div>\n\n\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\nAvg. Chance of Winning each week<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/span><\/td>\nTenQ<\/span><\/td>\n65.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/span><\/td>\nOrigQ<\/span><\/td>\n61.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/span><\/td>\nQ<\/span><\/td>\n54.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/span><\/td>\nFrnQ<\/span><\/td>\n53.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/span><\/td>\nQU<\/span><\/td>\n51.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/span><\/td>\nFahQ<\/span><\/td>\n50.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/span><\/td>\nQBC<\/span><\/td>\n49.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/span><\/td>\nQTang<\/span><\/td>\n47.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/span><\/td>\nSOQ<\/span><\/td>\n45.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/span><\/td>\nBQP<\/span><\/td>\n43.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11<\/span><\/td>\nQunet<\/span><\/td>\n42.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12<\/span><\/td>\nSwineQ<\/span><\/td>\n33.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u00c2\u00a0<\/p>\n

Definitions:
\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/h3>\n

\u00c2\u00a0– The mean is the average
\n-\u00c2\u00a0 Standard deviation describes the variance of a distribution around its mean.\u00c2\u00a0 68% of all values fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean (+\/- 17 pts of 69 in QFL’s case), and 95% will fall within +\/- 1.96 st deviations (+\/- 34 pts. of 69).\u00c2\u00a0
\n-\u00c2\u00a0 The median is the midpoint of a set of observations.\u00c2\u00a0 In a given week, the median would lie in the middle of the 6th and 7th highest scoring teams.\u00c2\u00a0
\n-\u00c2\u00a0 Distance from the median for a given week is simply how far away your score was from the midpoint.\u00c2\u00a0
\n-\u00c2\u00a0 A “deserved” win is simply any week where your score gave you more than a 50% chance to win.\u00c2\u00a0
\n-\u00c2\u00a0 The Lucky Ratio is Deserved wins – Actual wins
\n-\u00c2\u00a0 The Very Lucky Ratio – I thought we should have a special designation for any win\/loss that was really undeserved, and I set those boundaries at a loss when >60% chance to win or a win when <40% chance to win.\u00c2\u00a0 This ratio is the net sum of your Very (Un)Lucky wins\/losses.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ted finally released his\u00c2\u00a0famous Annual Lucky Ratio rankings this afternoon and although he left open the possibility of further tinkering with the analysis and commentary, there is enough juice here to release the findings.\u00c2\u00a0 Sorry Scott.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,19,20],"tags":[198,40],"class_list":["post-1850","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","category-qfl-nation-news","category-qfl-prime","tag-lucky-ratio","tag-soq"],"post_mailing_queue_ids":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.qballers.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1850","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.qballers.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.qballers.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.qballers.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.qballers.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1850"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/www.qballers.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1850\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1862,"href":"https:\/\/www.qballers.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1850\/revisions\/1862"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.qballers.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1850"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.qballers.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1850"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.qballers.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1850"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}