How good is QFL Nation at collectively picking rookies? QSN took the 2012 rookie consensus picks (based on the rookie drafts of QFL, Deuce & Thrice – no Quatro) and compared the draft position of each player to their 2014 fantasy points output and concluded that, as a group, we are terrible at picking rookies.
2012 Consensus Rookie Picks
| Player | QFL Pick # | Deuce Pick # | Thrice Pick # | Average DP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.33 |
| Robert Griffin III | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2.67 |
| Doug Martin | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3.00 |
| Andrew Luck | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3.33 |
| David Wilson | 4 | 5 | 7 | 5.33 |
| Russell Wilson | NA | 6 | 6 | 6.00 |
| Justin Blackmon | 9 | 8 | 5 | 7.33 |
| Isaih Pead | 6 | 10 | 8 | 8.00 |
| Kendal Wright | 8 | 7 | 10 | 8.33 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 7 | 11 | 9 | 9.00 |
| Michael Floyd | 10 | 14 | 11 | 11.67 |
| Alfred Morris | 12 | NA | NA | 12.00 |
| Brian Quick | 11 | 9 | 18 | 12.67 |
| Lamar Miller | 17 | 13 | NA | 15.00 |
| Alshon Jeffrey | 14 | 19 | 12 | 15.00 |
| Robert Turbin | 13 | 17 | 16 | 15.33 |
| Stephen Hill | 15 | 18 | 14 | 15.67 |
| Coby Fleener | 18 | 12 | 17 | 15.67 |
| Brandon Weeden | NA | 16 | NA | 16.00 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 24 | 15 | 13 | 17.33 |
| Nick Foles | NA | 20 | 15 | 17.50 |
| Vick Ballard | 19 | NA | NA | 19.00 |
| Josh Gordon | 16 | NA | 22 | 19.00 |
| Mohamed Sanu | NA | 21 | 17 | 19.00 |
| Bryce Brown | NA | NA | 20 | 20.00 |
| Nick Toon | 21 | NA | NA | 21.00 |
| Dwayne Allen | NA | NA | 21 | 21.00 |
| Reuben Randle | 20 | 22 | 23 | 21.67 |
| Chris Givens | 22 | NA | NA | 22.00 |
| Ryan Broyles | 23 | NA | NA | 23.00 |
| Juron Criner | NA | NA | 24 | 24.00 |
If we were perfect, this is how the 2012 rookie draft should have unfolded based on 2014 FP/G.
| Average Draft | Player | 2014 Reg. Season FP/G Rank | 2014 Reg. Season FP/G |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Andrew Luck | 2 | 16.9 |
| 6 | Russell Wilson | 8 | 14 |
| 20 | Ryan Tannehill | 26 | 11.69 |
| 21 | Nick Foles | 39 | 10.47 |
| 14 | Alshon Jeffrey | 57 | 9.49 |
| 14 | Lamar Miller | 70 | 8.84 |
| 10 | Ronnie Hillman | 77 | 8.51 |
| 12 | Alfred Morris | 97 | 7.82 |
| 17 | Coby Fleener | 121 | 6.98 |
| 9 | Kendal Wright | 126 | 6.8 |
| 13 | Brian Quick | 130 | 6.71 |
| 22 | Mohamed Sanu | 136 | 6.62 |
| 11 | Michael Floyd | 152 | 6.3 |
| 26 | Dwayne Allen | 153 | 6.24 |
| 28 | Reuben Randle | 169 | 5.99 |
| 2 | Robert Griffin III | 201 | 5.31 |
| 22 | Josh Gordon | 214 | 5.09 |
| 3 | Doug Martin | 227 | 4.85 |
| 1 | Trent Richardson | 237 | 4.68 |
| 19 | Brandon Weeden | 317 | 3.06 |
| 25 | Bryce Brown | 331 | 2.84 |
| 26 | Nick Toon | 332 | 2.81 |
| 16 | Robert Turbin | 334 | 2.8 |
| 29 | Chris Givens | 414 | 1.61 |
| 30 | Ryan Broyles | 516 | 0.6 |
| 5 | David Wilson | DNP | 0 |
| 7 | Justin Blackmon | DNP | 0 |
| 8 | Isaih Pead | DNP | 0 |
| 17 | Stephen Hill | DNP | 0 |
| 22 | Vick Ballard | DNP | 0 |
| 31 | Juron Criner | DNP | 0 |
These are the top guys that got “under-drafted”.
| Average Draft | Real Rank after 3 seasons | How Wrong Were We? | Player |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 3 | 17 | Ryan Tannehill |
| 21 | 4 | 17 | Nick Foles |
| 28 | 15 | 13 | Reuben Randle |
| 26 | 14 | 12 | Dwayne Allen |
| 22 | 12 | 10 | Mohamed Sanu |
| 14 | 5 | 9 | Alshon Jeffrey |
| 14 | 6 | 8 | Lamar Miller |
| 17 | 9 | 8 | Coby Fleener |
These were the top guys that got “over-drafted”.
| Average Draft | Real Rank after 3 seasons | How Wrong Were We? | Player |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 26 | -21 | David Wilson |
| 7 | 27 | -20 | Justin Blackmon |
| 8 | 28 | -20 | Isaih Pead |
| 1 | 19 | -18 | Trent Richardson |
| 3 | 18 | -15 | Doug Martin |
| 2 | 16 | -14 | Robert Griffin III |
| 17 | 29 | -12 | Stephen Hill |
| 22 | 30 | -8 | Vick Ballard |
These are the guys we didn’t mis-draft too badly (w/in 3 of actual 2014 rank).
| Average Draft | Real Rank after 3 seasons | How Wrong Were We? | Player |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1 | 3 | Andrew Luck |
| 9 | 10 | -1 | Kendal Wright |
| 10 | 7 | 3 | Ronnie Hillman |
| 11 | 13 | -2 | Michael Floyd |
| 13 | 11 | 2 | Brian Quick |
| 19 | 20 | -1 | Brandon Weeden |
| 31 | 31 | 0 | Juron Criner |
Observations:
– Russell Wilson & Nick Foles went undrafted in the QFL
– Alfred Morris went undrafted in Deuce & Thrice
Conclusions:
In conclusion, don’t pay any attention to the 2015 QFL Nation consensus rookies when I post them next August.
Going Forward:
Next, since our collective knowledge sucks, I will work out the best and worst individual teams in QFL Nation at picking rookies. Hopefully I can at least identify an individual team, besides myself, that is worthy of paying attention to.
Additional Reading:
2013 Consensus Rookies
2014 Consensus Rookies
Shades