Forget about the minor foot injury against Youngstown - until we have to.  The early favorite for the #1 selection in your 2009 rookie-only fantasy football draft is clearly Chris Wells.  The guy is a beast in the Jim Brown mold and even if he is drafted by a bad NFL team, he will still be the definite #1 2009 keeper rookie as McFadden and Adrian Peterson were in the previous two years. 

Ohio State RB Chris “Beanie” Wells For Heisman 2008

They call him “Beanie” even though he’s 6-1, 237 lbs, runs a 4.5 40 yard and is the focalpoint of Ohio State’s current #2 ranking in the nation. 

As a sophmore in 2007 he lit up Michigan, at Michigan, for 222 yards (at 5.7 yards a clip) and 2 touchdowns.  On a per carry basis that was an off day for him too as he averaged 5.9 yards a carry during his entire sophmore campaign, totalling 274 attempts, 1,609 yards and 15 TDs.  

The early second best 2009 fantasy rookie prospect is Ian Johnson, RB, from Boise State.

2010 Fantasy Stud Prospect Watch:

• LeSean McCoy, RB (PIT)
• Knowshon Moreno, RB (Georgia)

There is no doubt about Darren McFadden being the #1 ranked rookie keeper prospect for 2008.  He has held this spot for two years already.  McFadden is almost as sure a thing as Adrian Peterson was last year and could be better if not for his much weaker offensive line.

The real debate, in this abnormally great year for rookie-only drafts, is the order of the next four rookie keepers.  We’ll see what happens in training camp, but Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Kevin Smith and Matt Forte will all have an opportunity in 2008 and any one could become the next Steven Jackson or Marshawn Lynch.  You also can’t discount the possibility that Felix Jones or Ryan Torain will emerge in preseason games.

After pure talent in determining a rookie keeper’s value comes the players overall situation.  Of the four best running backs after McFadden, Mendenhall clearly stands out as having the best 5 year outlook due to the combined youth and relative experience of his teammates.  Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes, Limas Sweed, Willie Parker and Heath Miller form a core averaging 24 years old, so if Mendenhall can establish himself as the lead back, he has a better chance of continuing solid production through 2012.  That is, if the Steelers aren’t sold and moved to Los Angeles by then.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Stewart have a better 2008 than Mendenhall, but Stewart is playing with aged Jake Delhomme (33), Steve Smith (29), and Mush Muhammad (65), which limits his future upside.  If you take Stewart #2 overall in a rookie draft, he should be counted on as no more than your RB3 for the next two years.  If the Panthers have another bad year in 2008 they may go into full rebuilding mode.

Matt Forte and Kevin Smith round out the top 5 overall fantasy rookie prospects.  Neither is in a great situation, but they seem like they will get the carries on their teams.  Instinct tells you Smith will be the better short-term play while Matt Forte is the patient play.  Kevin Smith has a chance to do well with Jon Kitna in a last gasp type season in 2008, but after that Detroit looks pretty bad.

Matt Forte could conceivably benefit from the drafting of, or trading for a QB that could manage the Chicago offense better over the long run, but thats a very speculative bet.

Sweed beats out Devin Thomas and Donnie Avery in our soon-to-be-released keeper rookie WR rankings.

Roethlisberger missed Plax Burress so much that he made the controversial move of publicly asking for a tall receiver this off-season.  He got one in Limas Sweed (6-4, 215).  The two appear set to dominate for years in a very young offense.  Aside from Hines Ward (32), who Sweed will likely push aside in a year, the average age of all the Steelers’ skill position players is only 24!  Combine that with a still good o-line and you have the makings of a great keeper/dynasty prospect. 

In two years, don’t be surprised if Sweed takes WR1 duties away from Santonio Holmes as Sweed is almost 6 inches taller and 20 lbs heavier, potentially making him Big Ben’s preferred red zone target and go-to guy.

A really good year for rookie-only drafts got even better as a result of the Benson cut. There are now FIVE rookie RBs that look certain to get enough carries to be fantasy football worthy in 2008.

The other Adrian Peterson is a sleeper now as well, but Matt Forte will get a long look as Chicago’s main RB now that Benson is gone. McFadden, Stewart, Kevin Smith and Mendenhall are obviously the other top rookie RBs.

There are also several other rookie RBs in backup roles that could have an impact in future years, and are good as handcuffs this year; Felix Jones, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Steve Slaton and Ryan Torain.

We predict Jamaal Charles and Tashard Choice are going to be fantasy busts without major injuries in front of them.

Why should you avoid Ladainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson?  And other guys going in the first few rounds who will probably disappoint you this year (and will definitely disappoint you for the next few years if you are in a keeper league):

LaDainian Tomlinson - There is a great argument for taking Tomlinson in the first round. Namely that he runs behind one of the best O-lines in the league and is looking at a very cake schedule this year. However, if you are in a keeper league, you should consider Tomlinson’s 2,365 career total rush attempts and he turns 29 in June. If you do draft him, a good strategy would be to trade him after 8 games (or so) while his perceived future value is still very high. While LT has been extremely durable over his career, not even the best RBs last much longer than what he already has. Consider Marshall Faulk’s 2,836 total career rushing attempts before retirement, Priest Holmes’ 1,780, Eddie George’s 2,865 and Corey Dillon’s 2,618.

Larry Johnson – LJ should not be going in the first round this year. He is not a guy you can depend on anymore. Until the Chiefs rebuild their O-line and can field some kind of threat at QB he is no more than a 4th round pick at best. Not even his fairly easy schedule in 2008 is enough to compensate. Over the next few years, if you see the Chiefs truly rebuild their O-line, then start to think about LJ again.

Willie Parker – When Pittsburgh drafted Mendenhall they sent a clear message to fantasy owners: Fast Willie Parker’s monopoly on carries is over. It’s not like Parker scored touchdowns anyway, besides Pittsburgh has a brutal schedule against the run this year. His days as a top 20 RB are over.

Laurence Maroney – Maroney is young and has been called “entrenched” as the starting RB, so it is tempting to assume he will automatically be a great keeper option. Unfortunately for Maroney, this is a pass-first team and he has only caught 26 passes over 27 games. He’s also only averaging 180 carries a season. Unless you see the Pats start to commit to running the ball, Maroney will disappoint you.

Ronnie Brown – He’s coming off a major knee injury that can take two years to fully heal. He’s playing on a rebuilding team that plays from behind a lot, and, believe it or not, Ricky Williams is a serious contender to share rushing duties. Ronnie Brown is not a safe pick in the first few rounds of your draft this year. He may be a late round guy to stash on your bench for the 2009 season, though you should monitor the progress of Jalen Parmele closely if that is your plan.

Jamal Lewis – He actually should have a good year this year behind a great offensive line, but he will be 29 in August, has a brutal schedule and has averaged over 300 carries a season for 7 seasons. That’s a lot of mileage for an RB in a keeper league format.

Travis Henry – Especially with the recent signing of Michael Pittman to the Broncos, one can now legitimately question the fantasy value of Travis Henry. The team also has Selvin Young on the roster and drafted Ryan Torain. Also Henry will be 30 in October. This is not a player in a favorable situation that you should draft in the first few rounds.

Edgerrin James – Going on his tenth season in the league his mileage is extremely high with 2,849 total rush attempts and the Cardinals O-line is only okay. He might have a year left, but do you want to gamble your team on it with a high pick?